Forecasting is a difficult task. Take weather for example. We have seen how accurate the weather department is with rainfall predictions. The patterns return year after year, all the patterns have been studied and models have been made. They have access to satellites and supercomputers. Still they get it wrong so many times.
Now this pandemic is called “novel” because we have never seen something like this. We do not have enough data. We are not professional AI gurus. We are just a bunch of concerned individuals like you. We use our home computers and work at nights. Data science is a new field that did not exist when we went to school. We taught ourselves and are using them in ways not thought of before. We are able to describe the real situation, especially about India, much closer than what most other experts are able to. We are doing this because we have not seen anything like that accessible to the public. Our results are 85% accurate as of now and will improve further.
The work we have done is difficult. Else many people would have already done it. But we think it is imporant because it helps in decision making and preparing to battle with the pandemic. Just like a map helps us to drive, a forecast helps us to plan our lives. This forecast will change on a daily basis just like the weather. We try to update our models and predictions as we get more recent data. Most professional research group have not made their algorithms public but we are open source and request for comments.
If you like what you see please share this among your friends. Covid is here to stay and we want to help you plan your lives better. The print media would not cover a voluntary effort such as ours. So we are relying on you and the power of social media to make this research reach the common man. Share if you care.