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Currently we are seeing that Mumbai, Delhi, Chennai and Ahmedabad together account for 2/3rd of the cases. But the same trend would not continue for long. When all of this is over, UP would end up being the state that would report the maximum number of daily cases.

A peak date is when the epidemic growth is at the maximum and after that the disease starts to subside. Hence it is of interest to know if a country or state has peaked. In our previous post, we described how we trained a 20 day forecaster using deep learning and a Recurrent Neural Network. Feeding back the predicted data as input data in a recursive loop, we can extend the prediction even further. We did exactly this and extended the forecast for next 6 months. We found that the following states would end up reporting more than 10K cases daily:

10k states

Then these states would report more than 5K cases daily:

5k states

Lastly, these states would report more than 2K cases every day:

2k states

Now summing up all the state level graphs, we calculate the aggregate graph for India which looks like this:

agg states

Peak date: Oct 6, 2020

Peak daily new cases: 93,414

Cumulative confirmed cases: 1,14,46,050

A more textured graph can be drawn once we have district wise granular data.

Our calculations and code is available in this notebook.

Results

Last Updated: June 11, 2020.

We plan to update these results every few days. So please check back for any changes.

The following table shows a list of states along with their peak dates, peak daily cases and cumulative cases.

State Peak date Peak daily cases Cumulative cases
Andaman & Nicobar Islands Oct 01 69 3,545
Andhra Pradesh Sep 20 14,311 6,97,062
Arunachal Pradesh Nov 08 3,558 2,28,398
Asaam Aug 09 4,998 2,72,570
Bihar Oct 01 14,604 8,21,905
Chandigarh Dec 27 53 2,338
Chhattisgarh Sep 09 3,625 1,79,202
Delhi Jun 24 2,488 1,41,890
Dadra & Nagar Haveli and Daman & Diu Nov 24 106 4,297
Goa Jun 19 70 4,748
Gujarat Aug 29 9,059 4,73,340
Himachal Pradesh Sep 27 766 58,292
Haryana Aug 04 4,067 1,95,165
Jharkhand Aug 22 5,037 2,32,344
Jammu & Kashmir Aug 09 2,151 1,10,561
Karnataka Nov 18 14,325 5,79,448
Kerala Oct 01 5,124 2,36,213
Ladakh Dec 27 32 3,460
Maharashtra Jul 19 16,796 15,41,915
Meghalaya Oct 01 497 20,659
Manipur Aug 09 293 30,338
Madhya Pradesh Oct 21 8,837 7,19,312
Mizoram Aug 02 100 7,121
Nagaland Oct 07 262 13,674
Odisha Oct 22 5,719 4,17,555
Punjab Sep 20 5,257 2,30,506
Puducherry Aug 22 233 10,117
Rajasthan Nov 24 9,412 8,39,299
Telangana Oct 27 4,731 3,36,058
Tamil Nadu Jul 17 11,386 6,29,946
Tripura Dec 22 535 17,910
Uttar Pradesh Oct 01 27,400 17,98,338
Uttarakhand Dec 24 1,065 29,827
West Bengal Aug 31 8,665 5,58,697

States in the order they peak, with peak daily cases listed as bars: Bar chart

The graphs for a few states were predicted incorrectly by our RNN because of insufficient data. The secondary wave has to be ignored for now till we refit the model with more training data.